Data signal · Holidays
Holidays
Holidays move demand before, during and after the day itself.
Why holidays matters
Public holidays change opening hours, shopping days and what people buy. Demand often peaks in the days before a holiday, drops on the day itself and can stay unusual for days afterwards. Moving holidays such as Easter fall on different dates every year, which makes simple year-over-year comparisons misleading.
How it typically shows up in grocery demand
| Situation | Typical effect on demand |
|---|---|
| Day before a public holiday | Stock-up peak, especially in fresh and festive products |
| Holiday itself | Reduced hours or closure; demand shifts to other days |
| Moving holidays (e.g. Easter) | Peak lands in a different week each year |
| Long weekends | More out-of-town travel; lower demand in some areas, higher in others |
General patterns observed across grocery retail. Actual effects vary by store, location and product.
Using it in a forecast
A forecast represents holidays as known calendar features with windows before and after, so the model learns the full shape of each holiday’s effect, not just the day itself.
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